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Publications & Research

Israel Under Fire - Israel's Survival: Little Room to Maneuver

Nicholas Rostow

Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

May 2024

This essay highlights permanent features of Israel’s strategic position in light of the October 7, 2023, attacks. Therefore, it recalls relevant history because each generation has to learn that history and because it illuminates the fact that Israel’s room to maneuver diplomatically and politically is limited. Finally, the essay emphasizes again the asymmetrical reality that Israel cannot afford to lose a war.

Section 702 - Essential Tool for National Security

Abraham R. Wagner

Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST)

April 2024

Surveillance against adversaries is an essential part of the intelligence mission, and it was necessary for the Intelligence Community to develop both a responsive collection capability as well as an appropriate legal regime as well. Fundament to this legal regime is the 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) for collection of foreign intelligence in the U.S. Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks new provisions have been added, including Section 702 that allows collection against foreign targets located outside the U.S. for national security purposes and has been subject to criticism, largely from civil liberties organizations and privacy advocates. Section 702 permits the targeting of non-U.S. persons located outside the United States, while U.S. persons or persons located here may not be the intended targets of the collection, they are subject to what is known as “incidental collection” such as when they communicate with non-U.S. persons who are the targets of the collection.

Meeting the Intelligence Technology Challenge: Getting Out From Behind the Power Curve

Abraham R. Wagner

Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST)

April 2024

The prospect of cyberattacks and cyberwarfare has become a major national security challenge. The Intelligence Community and Defense Department that have largely failed to respond to this threat and the prospect of a “Digital Pearl Harbor” looms while these agencies are not collecting, monitoring or analyzing the data effectively, building adequate defenses, or able to respond effectively. Existing efforts are buried as classified special access programs that obscure the fact that the emperor has no clothes. Within the $90 billion spent annually on intelligence programs there is more than enough for the needed programs. The nation cannot rely on out-of-date programs and technologies to meet the evolving threat, or that simply do not exist.

Cyber Threats to the Financial Sector: Understanding the Attack Surface

Thomas Garwin, Nicholas Rostow and Abraham Wagner

Margin Research

January 2024

Significant cyber threats now come from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea who recruit skilled personnel; develop malicious code; and prepare for hostile cyber operations. They expanded their cyber capabilities in intelligence collection, espionage, deception, and cyber warfare where the prospect of a major attack or “Digital Pearl Harbor” could devastate the nation’s financial sector in a non-kinetic attack. The financial sector has focused on “low hanging fruit” and less on the capabilities of adversaries for a major cyberattack. The U.S. has been complacent about this risk of major cyberattack, and the idea that the commercial sector and private industry would solve many cyber problems has proved invalid while the government has focused on “incident reporting” rather than detecting hostile code before it is used. This leaves open the prospect of a major intelligence failure with catastrophic consequences.

Gaza Intelligence Failure

Abraham R. Wagner and Anthony H. Cordesman

Center for Strategic and International Studies

October 2023

The surprise attack by Hamas on Israel was the result of major failure by a combination of Israeli intelligence, military security planning and readiness, and high-level policymaking. What was Israel’s 9/11 it involved the most significant intelligence failures since Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack that started the 1973 October War. There is no way to know at this point of time how much Israeli intelligence is to blame versus the failures of Israel military commanders to provide adequate defenses and readiness, and the actions of its political leaders in trusting Hama’s apparent moderation.

Digital Pearl Harbor: Responses to the Growing Threat

Nicholas Rostow and Abraham Wagner

Margin Research

September 2023

All modern nations now confront the reality of devastating attack using information and communications technologies, drawing an analogy to Pearl Harbor. The effects of a digital version of Pearl Harbor would be even more extensive, devastating, and difficult to recover from than the original. While the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor involved a kinetic attack, a determined adversary can now cause substantial damage with non-kinetic cyber weapons operating remotely, making Pearl Harbor look like child’s play. They may offer the cyber equivalent of a first nuclear strike.

Ukraine Nuclear Weapons and the Future of International Law

Nicholas Rostow

Naval War College Review

Summer 2023

Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has confronted the international community with fateful questions: whether the minimum world public order constructed after World War II is to survive, whether nuclear powers are free to commit aggression, and whether any state that is not an ally of a nuclear power is fair game for attack.

China's Cyber Power and Military-Civil Fusion

Margin Research

Margin Research

March 2023

China poses the most significant cyber threat to the United States and its allies. Here China recruits skilled personnel, organizes their cyber operations, and integrates these activities in support of their military and intelligence services through their Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) program. This continues China’s longstanding interest in information and now the MCF program has greatly expanded China’s its cyber capabilities in intelligence, espionage, deception, and cyber warfare.

China's Cyber Laws and Regulations

Margin Research

Margin Research

February 2023

China’s President Xi Jinping has made a point of emphasizing the importance of law in China and the promotion of the rule of law at the base of Chinese Communist Party governance and power. Like any law, Chinese law expresses national policy. In China, management and control of cyberspace and law go hand in hand, and cyber law proceeds from the big picture to data security, protection of personal information, and management of network product security vulnerabilities.

Russia's Cyber Operations: A Rising Threat to American National Security

Dave Aitel, Sophia d'Antoine, Thomas Garwin, Ian Roos, Nicholas Rostow, Justin Sherman, and Abraham Wagner

Margin Research

December 2022

A 1960s research project at the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) began a technology revolution never anticipated and the most significant paradigm change since the invention of movable type. Today, most communications and information operations take place on systems connected to the Internet infrastructure. Dependence on this infrastructure makes users vulnerable to hostile attacks by criminal enterprises and foreign intelligence and military organizations.

China Cyber Operations: The Rising Threat to American Security

Dave Aitel, Sophia d'Antoine, Winnona DeSombre, Isabella Garcia-Camargo, Thomas Garwin, Ian Roos, Nicholas Rostow, and Abraham Wagner

Margin Research

August 2022

Looking at China’s cyber operations, this study utilizes a large body of open source data collected by the Margin Research team. It examines China’s strategy, tactics, and operations in cyberspace as well as Internet communications in Chinese software development and cyber operations. China’s interest in cyber grew rapidly in response to what it observed in U.S. military operations, beginning with Operation Desert Storm in 1991. By 2013, China emphasized cyberspace as a crucially important area in the struggle with principal competitors and adversaries such as the United States and the West more generally.

Tech Tyranny: Assessing a Regulatory Regime for Today’s Online World

Catherine Lotrionte, Nicholas Rostow and Abraham Wagner

Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST)

February 2021

The current debate about content moderation is part of a broader debate about the power of contemporary technologies, and the Big Tech companies that use these technologies, to influence individual behavior and perceptions. Platform providers exert great influence in shaping the information to which users are exposed. At present unregulated corporations control most of the ways people interact with each other and receive information in ways previously unimagined. Social media reflect this reality as they have become part of daily life, something unthinkable just a generation ago. Allegations of political bias, manipulation, and narrative control by the largest platforms have made people look at social media in a different light. Conservatives and liberals both see these platforms display overt biases towards one political affiliation or the other. No consensus has emerged about how to define the policy issues much less address them.

The International Criminal Court Revisited

Nicholas Rostow

Justice Magazine

Fall 2020

The International Criminal Court (ICC) came into being on July 1, 2002 and 123 states ratified the treaty although none of the largest states including China, India, Russia, or the United States — is a party to the treaty. The idea is that perpetrators of heinous violations of the laws of war, the prohibition on genocide, and the international law prohibition on aggression should be held accountable as a matter of criminal law.

Cybersecurity and Cyberlaw

Abraham Wagner and Nicholas Rostow

Carolina Academic Press

2020

Developments in communications and information technology, along with the introduction of new media, have had an enormous impact on almost all aspects of modern life. In law, areas such as law enforcement, national security, intellectual property, privacy, contracts, and tort law are affected. The rapid evolution of cyberspace has left vulnerabilities to fraud, abuse, and crime, as well as a new venue for warfare and espionage. Both statute and case law are moving to catch up to these new developments and address the challenges posed in meeting the security and privacy demands of society. This volume presents not only a background for understanding these critical issues, but various points of view from experts and case materials.

Henry Kissinger: Pragmatic Statesman in Hostile Times

Abraham R. Wagner

Routledge Historical Americans

July 2019

Henry Kissinger: Pragmatic Statesman in Hostile Times explores the influence of statesman Henry Kissinger in American foreign relations and national security during 1969 to 1977.

Lamps On! Reflections on the EU

Nicholas Rostow

inFOCUS Europe: Past and Present Collide (Summer 2018)

Summer 2018

On August 3, 1914, the eve of British entry into World War I, Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey told a friend that “[t]he lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them lit again in our life-time.” I begin this reflection on the European Union with this famous observation because it encapsulates the whole point of the European project launched in the wake of World War II. Grey went on to note “that a great European war would be a catastrophe on an unprecedented scale, and that this would be so obvious to all the Great Powers that, when on the edge of the abyss, they would call a halt and recoil from it.”

Cybersecurity Policy and Planning: Technologies for Keeping the Nation Safe

Abraham Wagner, Thomas Garwin, Nicholas Rostow, Sophia d’Antoine and David Aitel

Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST)

January 2018

In the 1960s ARPA initiated cyberspace with no sense that it would evolve into the largest media revolution in history, and there was no need for a national strategy or policy for this resource. The world has since seen radical changes never anticipated – at DARPA or anywhere else. The connected world evolved where communications and information technology support all sectors. Along with a myriad of benefits, cyberspace has also become a domain for crime, espionage, and warfare. Now there is a compelling need for national policy and strategy to address both existing and emerging cybersecurity problems. Meeting this need requires a strategy consistent with national policy guidance as well as an understanding of the threat environment and technology path.

Going Dark: Implications of an Encrypted World

Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST)

Center for Advanced Studies on Terrorism (CAST)

April 2017

The digital revolution has created a world where analog paper files and other antiquated media have largely been replaced by digital data. Neither the government nor the private sector anticipated the speed of this technological revolution, nor did they anticipate demands for privacy and security, or provide adequate technical solutions in a timely manner. In the digital world, users are no longer in control of their personal data or what is being done with it, and are increasingly demanding levels of privacy and security that simply did not exist before. Often users look to technical solutions, such as encryption, as an effective means of meeting this challenge. As an unintended result, criminals and hostile actors face greatly reduced costs in hiding their activities from legitimate U.S. Government surveillance, effectively “going dark.”

Fixing America’s Cybersecurity: A Plan for Cyber Policy and Organization

Cybersecurity Group - Trump-Pence Transition Team

January 2017

Cyber espionage, cyberwarfare, and attacks on vital domestic systems are among the most serious and dynamic threats facing the United States. Current policy, organization and programs have failed to meet these growing threats and need to be radically changed to successfully manage these critical challenges. The Trump administration will take America’s cybersecurity into the next generation, but can only succeed by building a stronger bi-partisan political consensus concerning these threats and making needed organizational and policy changes. The following plan includes several essential actions that should be taken within the first 100 days of the Trump Presidency, and defines a long-term path to meet these challenges.

Cybersecurity and Privacy: The Challenge of Big Data

Abraham R. Wagner

Columbia Law School, Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs

April 2014

Recent history has seen both the rapid evolution of cyberspace, accompanied great expansion in terms of users and capabilities. These new technologies have also led to a virtual explosion in the amounts of data resident systems worldwide – often referred to as "big data." The era of big data has also brought a set of challenges in terms of security and privacy that increasingly affect the lives of Americans.

Targeted Killing of Terrorists

Nicholas Rostow

INSS Strategic Forum

March 2013

The struggle against terrorism - more specifically, the effort to prevent terrorist attacks - has raised difficult legal and policy issues including so-called targeted killing, or killing of specific individuals because of their involvement in terrorist organizations and operations. As we shall see, this form of targeted killing involves domestic and international legal authorities and policy and prudential issues.

Before DarkSeoul Becomes Destroy Seoul

Ye-Ra Kim

Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs

November 2013

Guarding national security in cyberspace has become a core interest for many nations connected to the Internet. Indeed, the growing dependence on fast evolving information technology and continuous occurrence of cyberattacks against nations demonstrate the need for solid security strategy in cyberspace. South Korea is not an exception in this regard. Notwithstanding cybercrimes on various scales, South Korea has undergone major cyberattacks in recent years.

Counter Terrorism Liaison Officers: an effective anachronism?

Paul Swallow

November 2013

Whilst many states have had a long experience of internal terrorism, the events of 9/11, and the sub- sequent transport attacks in Madrid and London have all highlighted the international nature of the present terrorist threat and the increasing need for effective cross-border police and judicial cooperation to counter it. These events provided an impetus for a wide range of political and legal initiatives undertaken by the European Union (EU) and elsewhere (Den Boer 2003), and have shone a light on the pre-existing bi and multilateral arrangements for doing so. Among these are located Counter Terrorism Liaison Officers (CTLOs), who, along with non-specialist or criminal police liaison officers (LOs), are a little researched and little understood area of international police cooperation.

Cybersecurity: New Threats and Challenges

Abraham R. Wagner

American Foreign Policy Council, Defense Technology Program Brief

July 2013

In recent years the vast expansion of cyberspace, not only in terms of user but content and applications, has brought about a set of new threats and challenges never anticipated by the net’s designers. At the outset of this technological revolution access to the net was only through a few connected mainframe computers; there was literally nothing to steal or attack; and no infrastructure was connected to the net. Cybersecurity was simply not an issue.

Cybersecurity: From Experiment to Infrastructure

Abraham R. Wagner

American Foreign Policy Council, Defense Dossier

August 2012

The rapid evolution of cyberspace has clearly been one of the greatest technological revolutions in recorded history. What began as a Defense Department experiment at the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA, later DARPA) in the late 1960s has transformed almost all aspects of life with new technologies as well as related applications available on a myriad of new devices. Since the transition from the ARPAnet to the Internet in 1989, there has been an explosive growth in e-mail, the web and net-based applications of a magnitude never anticipated.

From Drug Wars to Criminal Insurgency: Mexican Cartels, Criminal Enclaves and Criminal Insurgency in Mexico and Central America. Implications for Global Security

John P. Sullivan

Fondation Maison des sciences de l'homme

April 2012

Transnational organized crime is a pressing global security issue. Mexico is currently embroiled in a protracted drug war. Mexican drug cartels and allied gangs (actually poly-crime organizations) are currently challenging states and sub-state polities (in Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and beyond) to capitalize on lucrative illicit global economic markets. As a consequence of the exploitation of these global economic flows, the cartels are waging war on each other and state institutions to gain control of the illicit economy. Essentially, they are waging a ‘criminal insurgency’ against the current configuration of states. As such, they are becoming political, as well as economic actors.

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